Kamala Harris could be bad news for India???

 

The world is reacting to the projected victory of Joe Biden over Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

For days, people around the world have been glued to the White House race. It is not just the US that the election of a new president affects - a new leader in the White House can transform the country's foreign policy and its approach to its friends and foes alike. Here is how some of the world's leaders have reacted, and where they stand with the US.

Benjamin Netanyahu - Israeli Prime Minister

"Congratulations Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Joe, we've had a long & warm personal relationship for nearly 40 years, and I know you as a great friend of Israel. I look forward to working with both of you to further strengthen the special alliance between the US and Israel.

"Thank you Donald Trump for the friendship you have shown the state of Israel and me personally, for recognizing Jerusalem and the Golan, for standing up to Iran, for the historic peace accords and for bringing the American-Israeli alliance to unprecedented heights."

US policy in the Middle East shifted massively during Donald Trump's presidency. He heightened tensions with Iran while recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital and helped establish ties between Israel and several Arab states.

Mr Biden's suggestion he may rejoin the Iran nuclear deal will deeply concern Israeli policymakers. His likely objections to further Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank will also mark a shift from his predecessor.

Boris Johnson - UK Prime Minister

"Congratulations to Joe Biden on his election... and to Kamala Harris on her historic achievement. The US is our most important ally and I look forward to working closely together on our shared priorities, from climate change to trade and security"

With Brexit looming, the UK will soon have a very different transatlantic partner in Joe Biden. The UK currently trades with the US on terms set by the EU, but this will change on 1 January 2021 when the transition period ends - and the US and UK are trying to negotiate a new post-Brexit trade deal.

Mr Biden - who often speaks of his Irish background - has said said he would not allow peace in Northern Ireland to become a "casualty of Brexit" if elected.

One of the most complicated issues as the UK leaves the EU is the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which Mr Biden does not want to become a "hard border". Currently there are no passport or customs controls on the border, and politicians on all sides fear a return to checks which existed during the decades of deadly civil unrest in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles.

Narendra Modi - Indian Prime Minister

"Congratulations Joe Biden on your spectacular victory! As the VP, your contribution to strengthening Indo-US relations was critical and invaluable. I look forward to working closely together once again...

"Heartiest congratulations Kamala Harris! Your success is path-breaking, and a matter of immense pride not just for your chittis [aunts], but also for all Indian-Americans. I am confident that the vibrant India-US ties will get even stronger with your support and leadership."

Kamala Harris is the daughter of an Indian biologist, and there have been celebrations in India after her victory. But both she and Mr Biden have criticised the Hindu nationalist policies of Mr Modi's government, something Donald Trump did not do during his time in office.

Andrew Holness - Jamaican Prime Minister

"America will have its first female Vice President in the person of Kamala Harris, and we are proud that she bears Jamaican heritage.

"Her ascension to this role is a monumental accomplishment for women all over the world and I salute her."

While Ms Harris's mother was Indian, her father is Jamaican by birth - sparking similar joy in the Caribbean country.

Justin Trudeau - Canadian Prime Minister

"Congratulations, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Our two countries are close friends, partners, and allies. We share a relationship that's unique on the world stage. I'm really looking forward to working together and building on that with you both."

Mr Trudeau and Mr Trump did not have the smoothest relationship. The Canadian liberal leader had noticeably different politics to his US counterpart, and will likely have a warmer partnership with Mr Biden who shares his views on climate change and international affairs.

Angela Merkel - German Chancellor

"Our transatlantic friendship is indispensable if we are to deal with the major challenges of our times"

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in Germany. He and Chancellor Merkel clashed repeatedly on Nato funding, global diplomacy and even the coronavirus, in sharp contrast to Ms Merkel's close relationship with his predecessor Barack Obama. Issues like military spending will remain but the US will likely renew its ties with Germany under Mr Biden.[1]

Russia, China, Brazil etc. remained silent on congratulating the New President of USA

Russian state media voiced support for President Trump’s view that the Nov. 3 presidential vote was marred with irregularities, as President Vladimir Putin, like the leaders of China, Brazil and a handful of other countries, remained silent about Joe Biden’s victory in last week’s election.

Leading pro-Kremlin broadcasters appeared to follow Mr. Trump’s lead in questioning the conduct of the vote and in at least one instance criticized the way several U.S. broadcast networks cut away from him as he made unfounded allegations...

China made a statement on the U.S. Presidential election results, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said: We have noticed that Mr. Biden declared he is the winner of the election. Our understanding is that the outcome of the election will be determined in accordance with the U.S. laws and procedures”.[2]

Some effects might happen globally after Joe Biden elected as President of USA

In choosing Biden over Trump, the American voters have most likely changed the course of the global economy. This is why everyone has been so keenly following the twists and turns of the presidential elections in the US.

Apart from the likely reduced uncertainties in global trade, what may be of immense importance is the fact that Biden understands the need to control the Covid pandemic before any sustainable economic recovery can take place — either in the US or elsewhere.

Biden’s approach — in stark contrast to Trump’s — could have a salutary impact on how the US leads the rest out of this tricky phase for the world economy when so many countries are witnessing a strong surge in Covid infections.

There are several ways in which the US economy, its health and the policy choices of its government affect India.

For one, the US is one of those rare big countries with which India enjoys a trade surplus. In other words, we export more goods to the US than what we import from it.

A recent analysis by Madan Sabnavis of CARE Ratings shows that over the past 20 years, India has always had a trade surplus with the US. The trade surplus has widened from $5.2 billion in 2001-02 to $17.3 billion in 2019-20. “Trade surplus had peaked at $21.2 billion in FY18 (2017-18) and has moderated to some extent,” points out the report.

In 2019-20, India exported goods worth $53 billion to the US — that’s roughly 17 per cent of all Indian exports that year — and imported goods worth $35.7 billion in return — that’s roughly 7.5 per cent of all Indian imports.

Apart from trade in goods, “India accounts for nearly 5 per cent of USA’s services imports from the World,” according to Sabnavis. Between 2005 and 2019, US services imports from India have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 14 per cent. In 2019, US imports of services from India were $29.7 billion.

Beyond trade, over the past two decades, the US is the fifth-biggest source for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India. Of the total $476 billion FDI that has come in since April 2000, the US accounted for $30.4 billion — roughly 6.5 per cent — directly. Only Mauritius, Singapore, Netherlands, and Japan have invested more FDI since 2000.

Apart from FDI (or investment in the physical assets inside India), the US also accounts for one-third of all Foreign Portfolio Investments (that is, investment in financial assets) into India. FPI data shows that, as of September 2020, total Assets Under Custody were Rs 33.22 lakh crore and the US accounted for Rs 11.21 lakh crore of this amount.

On trade, Biden is likely to be less obtrusive than the current Trump administration.

In the Trump worldview, trade was a zero-sum game. In other words, a country had to lose for another to gain. Of course, that is not the case most of the time. More often than not, trade is mutually beneficial — while it may be true that it may not be “equally” beneficial to all countries. Under a Biden administration, India’s trade with the US could recover from the dip since 2017-18.

A Biden presidency may also see a renewed push towards a rules-based trading system across the world — instead of outright ad-hocism as was the case under Trump — as well as a move away from the protectionist approach that has been getting strong across the world.

Combined with the control of Covid infections and the economic recovery, the US could yet again provide a growth impulse to the global economy that countries such as India need to boost their exports and grow. Apart from these very direct ways in which the US is important to India, there are massive policy concerns as well.

For instance, how a US President looks at the H1-B visa issue, affects the prospects of Indian youth far more than the youth of any other country. Under President Trump, who severely curtailed the visa regime, thanks to his policy of “America First”, India had suffered the most. That could change under Biden, who is unlikely to view immigrants and workers from India with Trump-like suspicion.[3]

What if Donald Trump does not leave White House?

All polls indicate a landslide for Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Even Trump is hinting at defeat for himself. “As soon as the election is over, we are going in with the lawyers”’, Trump declared in Penysylvania just before his last rally. The President has clearly lost hope of winning the election through ballots and is now getting ready to use legal options to stay put in the White House. He has already packed the Supreme Court with conservative judges hoping for a favourable judgment in case he challenges the verdict.

This is the moment of truth that America is facing. Trump is not willing to accept defeat, something that no American President has dared to do so far. It means a big crisis for American democracy bringing the entire American system to a grinding halt. The indication of a looming crisis is already there with Americans stockpiling arms in their homes. So, what turn the American election result takes is now the issue that the entire world is waiting to know with bated breath.

The American election this time round, as Biden said, turned into a “battle for the American soul” right from the word go. If an American president himself refuses to accept the peoples’ verdict, the entire democratic system will be hollowed. If America does not honour democracy, what happens to the free world that looks up to the global democratic icon. Now no one really knows what happens to American democracy if Trump refuses to concede a fair electoral verdict and uses the legal system to continue in office.[4]

The new President-elect had even noted recently that the "United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House." And while this would be a rather ignominious way to end a Presidency, Trump does not seem to have been deterred from his stance.[5]

Kamala Harris could be bad news for India

If Harris is good for Indian Americans does not necessarily mean that he would be good for the current government of India. On the contrary: The Biden team’s priorities (from what we know so far) are likely to drive a wedge between the United States and continental Asia’s oldest democracy at a time when Washington is looking for new allies in its strategic rivalry with China.

Harris may be a part of that wedge herself. As senator, Harris has been diplomatically circumspect in her few public comments about India’s government but has shown no love for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Last year, she even publicly criticized Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar while he was on an official visit to the United States. Jaishankar had refused to share a platform with U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Indian American sponsor of a House of Representatives resolution calling out the Indian government for its policies in Kashmir.

Harris herself has been critical of the Indian government’s policies in Kashmir and strongly suggested (without explicitly saying) that she would put human rights at the center of her approach to India—and the rest of the world. That sounds like political boilerplate until you realize that in India, “human rights” often translates as “anti-BJP.” Unable to beat Modi at the polls, his domestic critics have focused on what they say are policies and incitement directed against minorities, such as India’s 172 million Muslims. With Harris in the West Wing, Modi’s opponents in India may suddenly have much more leverage at their disposal.[6]

Written by Aarjav Jain

Intern at Advicebiz

Student of Himachal National Law University

Founder of International Journal of Advanced Legal Research (IJALR)

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[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54845979

[2]https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-putin-joins-chinas-president-in-staying-silent-on-joe-bidens-win-11604956335

[3] https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/how-a-biden-presidency-may-affect-indias-economy-explainspeaking-7019832/

[4] https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/opinion/what-if-donald-trump-refuses-to-leave-the-white-house

[5] https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/what-happens-if-donald-trump-refuses-to-leave-the-white-house

[6] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/06/biden-harris-india-modi-election/

Disclaimer: This article is the personal opinion of the author. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any Indian Government or any other Government of the world. This article is only opinion and does not render ant personal or professional advice.